A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
